Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
